Silicon Metal Inventory Slightly Decreases, Wafer Production Schedule Expected to Rise [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM August 27 News:

Silicon Coal

Prices: This week, the price of caking silicon coal in Xinjiang increased slightly by about 50 yuan/mt, while prices in other regions remained stable. Currently, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 810 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal 1,300 yuan/mt, Gansu silicon mixed coal 880 yuan/mt, granular coal 990 yuan/mt, Shaanxi silicon coal 900 yuan/mt, and Ningxia granular coal 1,160 yuan/mt.

Supply: The sales-based production strategy remains in place, with supply and demand basically balanced. In some areas, operating rates have also seen a slight increase due to the recent small rise in operating rates in south-west China and price advantages.

Demand: Downstream demand is still mainly driven by rigid needs, with a strong sentiment to drive down prices. However, overall demand has slightly increased due to the recent resumption of work in south-west China.

Silicon Metal

Prices: Yesterday, spot silicon metal was range-bound. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,200-9,500 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt. The main industrial silicon futures contract SI2511 opened at 8,680 yuan/mt, and fell continuously in the afternoon due to the influence of coking coal, reaching a low of 8,505 yuan/mt, and closing at 8,515 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous day. In terms of warrants, according to data from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, on August 26, the total number of industrial silicon warrants was 50,822 lots, a decrease of 116 lots or 580 mt from the previous day.

Production:

In August, both the supply and demand for silicon metal increased, with a balance expected to show a slight destocking.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of August 21, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 543,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. Among these, the general social warehouse held 117,000 mt, unchanged WoW, and the social delivery warehouse (including unregistered warrants and spot parts) held 426,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

Yesterday, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 46-52 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon 45-47 yuan/kg. Market quotes were temporarily stable. Due to self-discipline among polysilicon enterprises in September, orders in late August saw batch signings and shipments. Based on later self-discipline agreements, polysilicon enterprises had previously raised their quotes slightly.

Production

Polysilicon production schedules for August are expected to reach around 140,000 mt, mainly influenced by the rainy season. In September, some bases have seen varying degrees of production cuts, and enterprise self-discipline will also have a certain impact on subsequent production.

Inventory

This week, polysilicon inventories pulled back. Orders signed before the end of August were relatively concentrated, and bulk shipments led to a reduction in manufacturers' inventories, with some leading manufacturers' inventories approaching low levels.

Wafer

Price

The market price for N-type 18X wafers is 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, and the price for N-type 210RN wafers is 1.35-1.4 yuan/piece. After the overall wafer prices increased by 5 fen last week, there have been some transactions in the market, but the overall trading volume is relatively small. It remains to be seen how well the increase in cell prices will be accepted by module makers, which will determine the sustainability of this round of wafer price hikes.

Production

In August, domestic wafer production schedules were revised upward by 1-2 GW from the initial estimates at the beginning of the month. This was mainly due to a significant production ramp-up by an integrated company, along with minor increases by two specialized wafer companies. The toll processing output of specialized companies has notably increased compared to H1. The focus now is on the transmission effect following this round of price increases.

Inventory

Wafers have recently undergone destocking, and the overall inventory levels are currently within a reasonable range, with companies maintaining stable shipments.

High-purity Quartz Sand 

Price

The current domestic price for inner-layer sand is 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, for middle-layer sand it is 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and for outer-layer sand it is 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. This week, the price of high-purity quartz sand in China remained stable. Recently, the transaction price for spot orders of imported sand has slightly decreased, and demand still shows a slight weakness. For domestically produced sand, prices remain in a stalemate due to cost support.

Production

This week, the operation of quartz sand producers remained largely stable, with normal overseas production and adequate supply. There was a slight increase in the production schedule for August.

Inventory

The inventory of sand enterprises increased slightly, while the market trading volume decreased somewhat.